At the moment there are few conclusions we draw despite the uncertainty: Beyond that, given the huge range of variables, it is very hard to tell. image captionLong queues were seen at some polling stations in Cardiff as voting closed at 22:00 Voting has officially closed for the Welsh Parliamentary elections as some people had to queue outside polling stations to cast their vote. Long queues were seen outside some polling stations in the final hours before the ballot closed at […] In Llanelli, sitting MS Lee Waters has a majority of just 342. However in the regional vote you may then vote with the party you want most. Long queues as polls close for Welsh elections. See which seats have changed hands using our Welsh Assembly seat calculator. Something went wrong, please try again later. Checkpoint inhibitor indications, loneliness of childhood cancer survivors. I'd expect a couple more before election day. In the last last election UKIP won seven seats (this was a month before the Vote to leave the EU) but are now significantly lower in the polls. PARTIES in Wales stepped up their campaign efforts today as opinion polls show a tightening race for the Welsh Parliament election on May 6. 11:23am After these seven of 14 FPTP seats declared, Labour’s Sadiq Khan leads Tory Shaun Bailey for London mayor by 39.0% to 37.0%. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont. If pollsters apply the raw figures to the data to work out the number of seats it can fail to fully take into account the nuances of this tactical voting. There is a possibility that 16 and 17 year old voting will actually reduce the voter turnout as data from the Electoral Reform Society Cymru found that many had not registered. When the vote is so close in certain places these small differences can significantly change the make up of a poll in terms of seats. On this page are the latest Welsh Assembly election polls for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. But the polls have been quite up and down as you can see from our poll tracker here: Each poll that comes out seems to tell a new story. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Now more than ever this sort of journalism matters and we want you to be able to access it all in one place with one click. Welsh voters will go to the polls this week, to elect members of the Welsh Parliament, which is known as Senedd Cymru. With just nine days to go before the 2021 Welsh election, all eyes are on the polls. LD 5 and others 10. Only Yougov puts out multiple polls each year and they are sponsored by ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Latest Welsh political poll projects Senedd result with Mark Drakeford favoured for First Minister. So this presents two problems when it comes to accurate polls. A poll by the BBC/ICM gave Labour 30 seats and none for Abolish. There are sever constituencies which are going to be very closely run. A new poll for ITV Wales suggests that Labour has gained ground in the lead up to the Senedd election. For instance, if you were a supporter of Abolish the Welsh Assembly but lived in the Gower you would realistically be faced with a choice between Labour or the Conservatives. Your information will be used in accordance with our, WalesOnline/YouGov poll put Welsh Labour on 24 seats, data from the Electoral Reform Society Cymru, Teenager dies after 'falling from height' in woodland near Pen Pych in Rhondda, The 18-year-old's death near Treherbert has been confirmed by police, Senedd Election 2021: Labour wins half the seats in the Welsh Parliament as all results confirmed, All the results have been announced and Labour has won 30 seats in the next Senedd. For many people this is the first time the impact the Senedd can have on their lives has been made clear. Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. The first is that some of the polls don't list everyone of these minor parties, simply listing then as "other". 22 April 2021. The Welsh Parliament is the democratically elected body that represents the interests of Wales and its people. The results from the poll of 1,174 Welsh voters aged 16 and over, found Labour is still projected to win the election with 32% of the vote. In the last election neither Propel, Abolish and Reform had any constituency candidates meaning that this time around they could change the vote in tight seats. Published 23 hours ago. Their March 16-19 constituency figures were: Lab 32. Unlike previous years when vote counters burned the midnight oil, the votes will be counted on Friday, May 7, and instead of simultaneous counting, the teams in Powys will concentrate on one constituency before moving to the other. These include: There are several smaller parties which are running in this election. The Welsh Political Barometer poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,174 Welsh adults aged 16+ and was carried out online by YouGov from 16-19 March 2021. The seat calculations are from the 2021 Welsh Assembly swingometer. As well as some constituencies being too tight to call there also local developments coming into play. Plaid Cymru have put independence front and centre of their campaign. If you therefore may vote Conservatives in the constituency vote because they have been more sceptical about devolution that Labour - despite the fact you want Abolish to win. Since then an Opinium poll for Sky and a YouGov poll for ITV/Cardiff University have also returned very different results. To subscribe, click here, enter your email address and follow the simple instructions. There are a long list of reasons why the polls are so volatile at the moment. POLITICO Europe tracks polling data for every European election and country. 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Welsh Assembly Election 2016 (Use for 2021) Wales. The pandemic has awoken Wales' devolved consciousness. Given this is the first time that the Welsh public have had a say on who represents them in Cardiff Bay since the Brexit vote and the outbreak of Covid, there is more interest in this election than previously. Published 1 day ago. Whereas for UK Parliamentary elections the polls tend to be fairly steady with only small movements from survey to survey, in the run up to the Welsh election they have been far more volatile. A WalesOnline/YouGov poll put Welsh Labour on 24 seats with the Abolish the Assembly Party on five. How to organise an election in a pandemic. It's completely free and you can unsubscribe at any time. This can tend to make the polls more volatile. On this page are the latest Welsh Assembly election polls for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. This will decide who forms the Welsh … Live commentary on today’s UK elections, and a Westminster by-election in Labour-held Hartlepool, where a poll gave the Conservatives a 17-point lead. This creates a great deal of uncertainty. You wait all campaign for a Welsh poll – and then two come along within one week! Labour seem odds on to still be the largest party. The Liberal Democrat Kirsty Williams has held her seat since 1999 winning the 2016 election with a whopping 52.4% of the vote (the next candidate was the Tory on just 25.4). The latest ITV YouGov poll suggests that Labour would still be the largest party with 26 seats (down from 29), Plaid Cymru on 17 and the Conservatives on 14. Welsh Tory leader in the Senedd Andrew RT Davies said his party’s taking of Vale of Clwyd from Labour was a “brilliant result”, but suggested traditional Labour voters who voted Tory in the 2019 general election had now “come home”. This is followed by … Welsh election 2021: Queues as polls close for Welsh Parliament vote. We track the latest polls for the next Welsh Assembly election. The First Minister Mark Drakeford has gone from being a little known figure to one of the most recognisable faces. At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2021 Welsh Assembly election polls for the next Welsh Assembly election ordered from newest to oldest. Welsh voters will go to the polls this week, to elect members of the Welsh Parliament, which is known as Senedd Cymru. When you subscribe we will use the information you provide to send you these newsletters. Labour and the Tories have both made gains since the last time the Welsh Parliament was up for election, at the expense of UKIP, the nationalists and Liberal Democrats, according to a new poll by Opinium. Voting has officially closed for the Welsh Parliamentary elections as some people had to queue outside polling stations to cast their vote. … Brexit is no longer the issue it was last time and Welsh independence is now seeing a growth in support. However a lot has changed in the last five years. Two new polls in Wales! The countdown to next month’s Senedd elections reaches an end when voters go to the polls on Thursday (May 6). Add to that the fact 16 and 17 year olds are now able to vote and we could see more votes cast in this Welsh election that any other since the Senedd was established. It shows that in Cardiff Bay, the party could … Bruno Fernandes makes worrying declaration for Donny van de Beek’s Man Utd future. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. However after serving as education minister for the last five years Ms Williams will not be contesting the next election. Labour % Conservative % Plaid Cymru % UKIP % Liberal Democrat % Region. The latest poll put Labour on 26 seats (over 30 is a majority). So why is this one of the hardest ever Welsh elections to call? On polling, Welsh polling is pretty scarce and has had variable accuracy over previous elections. If voter turn out is significantly higher this is likely to make the polls even less reliable, as people who have possibly never voted in Wales do so. Do you recognise any of these bikes after 59 were stolen in Newport? You can read a full analysis of this here. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Because the Senedd election have both constituency candidates and regional candidates, may voters tend to thing tactically when casting the ballot. This may affect areas such as the Rhondda where they hold a slim majority because the Valleys is not typically regarded as a hotbed for independence support. Welsh election: A recent poll found Labour faced its worst Senedd election result since devolution in 1999. The last Senedd election saw just 45.3% of people eligible to vote, actually voting. In the constituency section of the ballot, the party is predicted to win 32 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives up four points on 30 per cent, with Plaid Cymru in … The seat calculations are from the 2021 Welsh Assembly swingometer. HUNG PARLIAMENT. Two of these, UKIP and Abolish the Assembly, are pledging to roll back devolution and scrap the Welsh Parliament. Success and failure for the three largest parties could centre on a few, very close constituencies. There have been some big changes in policy since the last election. With only two weeks until the Senedd election, and with some voters now casting postal ballots, today’s Welsh Political Barometer poll provides the very latest guide to the fortunes of the political parties in Wales. Given that younger people tend to skew left when it comes to voting then this could change some of the projections, particularly in those tighter seats. Electoral method In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. Wales Matters delivers the best of WalesOnline's coverage of politics, health, education, current affairs and local democracy straight to your inbox. In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Welsh election 2021: Polls open for voting. This page contains the Welsh Assembly swingometer used to predict election results for the next Welsh Assembly election scheduled to be held in 2021. This skews the vote away from them because people more likely to choose a party named when they are surveyed rather than "other". Election Results and Tools Updated for 2024. A recent WalesOnline poll found that Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent, Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clywd, Wrexham and the Gower could all change hands. Constituency. Labour is within touching distance of an overall majority in the Welsh Parliament, a new poll for Sky News reveals. Figures for Westminster voting intention reflect only those respondents aged 18 and over. All of the polls have the Lib Dems holding this seat but it is hard to quantify the impact of loosing a popular local MS will have. The election will decide who forms the … The polls are not very stable in Wales at the moment. POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland. Want to keep up to date on Welsh politics? * The Welsh Political Barometer poll, for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,013 Welsh adults aged 16+ and was carried out online by YouGov from October 26-30 2020. With just nine days to go before the 2021 Welsh election, all eyes are on the polls. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Welsh Assembly swingometer. Plaid 23. Con 30. The Welsh Nationalist party, who are set to make big gains in next week’s Senedd elections, spoke to the Daily Express as part of a series of leader interviews ahead of next week's vote. However, it didn't name parties like Abolish and Reform which probably inflated the Tory vote. Vying for second place in the polls are Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives. The Conservatives are the biggest opposition party, The £100 fines at Llangrannog car park which are 'putting people off' from visiting, Llangrannog should be able to attract people from all over Wales and the rest of the UK, but there are fears that people are staying away because of the 'unacceptable' running of a car park, Five concerning symptoms you should look out for after having the AstraZeneca vaccine, On Friday, May 7, it was confirmed under-40s are to be offered an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, The full list of Senedd election results for every constituency and region in Wales, The counts were finally completed at 2pm on Saturday - some 56 hours after the polls had opened. Polls indicate the vote could be split more evenly than in previous elections, with Labour potentially losing seats to the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, Wales’ nationalist party. Reform didn't exist then and Abolish the Welsh Assembly didn't put forward any constituency candidates. The FT is tracking opinion polls about voting intentions ahead of the elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments on May 6. The small parties also increase the unpredictability in because we have very little historical data to draw from. Information on how the 2021 Welsh Assembly election polling average is calculated is available here. Professor Roger Awan-Scully. Take Brecon and Radnorshire. Steve May 6, 2021. image caption Long queues were seen at some polling stations in Cardiff as voting closed at 22:00. This election is the first time that young people aged 16 and 17 will be able to vote. 2021 Senedd election How the Senedd would look based on the final YouGov poll of the Welsh election campaign Labour looks set to face difficult coalition negotiations with Plaid Cymru. From a polling perspective, this means that tiny changes in percentages can affect the results. 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